There is a pattern when it comes to which Congressional Republicans are calling it quits and declaring that they plan to retire. When mapped out we can see that those who are most likely to do this on the Republican side are those who come from districts in which the President is unpopular or steadily losing popularity in the polls.
CNN reports that the retirements have shown this pattern through the last year. They say that the departure of Paul Ryan as Speaker of the House next year is the latest sign that there is a divide between Republicans who are staying and those who are going.
At this point there have already been twenty-five Congressional Republicans who have declared their retirement. Another thirteen have said that they are leaving the House in order to run for a higher office. That puts a lot of seats potentially in play to begin with. This does not even include the dozens of Republicans who are not retiring but are expecting competitive races nonetheless.
Many of those retiring will say that they are leaving for personal reasons such as spending more time with their families. However, most of us are wise enough to know that there are generally other motivations at work here as well. While spending time with one’s family is always a good thing, there are few who would be honestly willing to give up a huge slice of their power just to spend more time at home. The reality when looking at the data points to a more clear pictures.
Those in districts that are not as pro-Trump and those in districts in which his policies have had the most impact are frequently the ones calling it quits. It seems that they are unable or unwilling to stick and around and try to defend certain aspects of the President’s agenda. Even those who might honestly agree with what the man has been doing are quick to leave if they feel that they cannot defend their seat.
All of this is going to make for an interesting election in the Fall. There are already a lot of variables at play when you consider that this is the first national election in the Trump era. It could be a sign of how the country believes that this President is doing. It is definitely something that all political observers are going to have an eye on headed into the back stretch of this year.